Ryan Wilday: Since leaving my job as a corporate design manager to analyze and trade cryptos (among other things), I’ve gained new attention from old colleagues. In circles of my former profession, I’m the guy that retired to trade for a living. While my departure from corporate life was something I planned for many years, cryptos certainly gave those plans a shot in the arm.
Regardless of how it came about, my early ‘retirement’ carries some lore; ‘He must have made millions on Bitcoin’ I’m sure some say.
The truth is that I have never owned more than two Bitcoin in one trade position. Regardless, now, if someone is curious about cryptos, I’m the guy they need to talk to. I hope I never lose this lure. Not because I care about being a storied individual, but this front line position on sentiment helps me make money.
When we were near our top at $19,000 I received many free lunches. The ‘crypto-curious’ took me out and wanted to know if it was time to kick their FOMO (fear of missing out) into full gear and start investing. Fortunately, they had me, and I warned it was not the time. I had previously called for a top in the $14,000 region, but Bitcoin zoomed straight through. At $19,000 I knew we were just that much more extended, and that finally did the trick. Price reacted to a Fibonacci level I had projected as the next key level: $18-19K.
So my friends received a loud and clear statement that that was not the time, but what if I hadn’t been there? Would they have suffered 70% decline in their investments?
Some other old friends were not so lucky, not having heard my story. I heard that an old coworker bought Ripple very near the top of $3.29 before it declined to 63 cents. That’s one example of what happens to friends that don’t check in.
Am I getting any more free lunches? A beer at happy hour? A coffee? Of course not. No one wants to talk cryptos, at least not yet. For those that haven’t been in cryptos as long as I have, the nearly 70% decline is something special and uniquely wicked. Why would anyone what to own such a thing? So, my food expenditures have increased recently.
But I know these declines are normal and should be expected as a crypto trader. In fact, the 60% decline in Bitcoin from peak to trough is quite shallow. It is a very shallow wave iv in my wave v of primary three, which should top between $65,000 and $225,000; that is, unless $3,000 doesn’t hold. If you take a step back with this knowledge, you can see this is great reward for the risk. But no one cares. The FOMO gave way to fear.
But I guarantee you, if my preferred path higher works out, FOMO will begin to kick in with a breakout above $20K and the chase will become full grown at $65,000 and above.
As soon as we topped I identified that $4700 is an ideal point for Bitcoin to find a final resting spot. However, Bitcoin is often very shallow in wave 4’s, so $8875 could provide support. We came right in between, at $5960.